Wednesday, March 16, 2016

The Campaign Trail 2016: Trump and Clinton each get closer to their party's nomination

Billionaire Donald Trump and former Senator Hillary Clinton steamrolled over their competition last night each getting closer to securing their party's nomination.

For the Republican primaries, Trump won five of the six contests of the day.

Florida, a winner take all state with 99 delegates up for grabs, went to Trump by a landslide with him taking 45.8 percent of the vote. Senator Marco Rubio, who has been hyping up his upcoming win against the billionaire in Florida for the last few weeks, came in a devastating second place with only 27 percent of the vote. Senator Ted Cruz came in third with 17.1 percent of the vote and Governor John Kasich came in last place with only 6.8 percent of the vote. Since Florida is a winner take all state, Trump walked away with all 99 delegates.

Kasich took first place in his home state of Ohio by collecting 46.8 percent of the vote. Since Ohio is also a winner take all state Kasich walks away with all 66 delegates that Ohio had up for grabs. Trump came in second with 35.6 percent of the vote, Cruz third with 13.1 percent of the vote, and Rubio dead last with 2.9 percent of the vote.

Missouri was the last winner take all state to have a competition yesterday and the race was incredibly close all night and into the morning with Trump finishing first with 40.8 percent of the vote. Trump will get 12 of the 52 delegates for his final placement. Since he didn't get over 50 percent of the vote, each candidate who won a congregational district will be getting five delegates per district won. Cruz came close to beating Trump with his final 40.6 percent finish, only 1726 votes behind the billionaire. Kasich came in third with 10.1 percent of the vote and Rubio was in last place again with 6.1 percent of the vote.

In Illinois, a proportional state, there were 69 delegates up for grabs and Trump won the state with 38.8 percent of the vote. Cruz came in second with 30.9 percent of the vote. Kasich came in third with 19.7 percent of the vote and Rubio came in last with 8.7 percent of the vote. The delegates are still being divided up but so far Trump has collected 49, Cruz has collected nine, and Kasich has collected four.

North Carolina was the other proportional state to vote yesterday with 72 delegates at stake and Trump won with 40.2 percent of the vote. Cruz came in second with 36.8 percent of the vote. Kasich was a distant third with 12.7 percent of the vote. And Rubio was, his standard for the night, last with 7.7 percent of the vote. The final delegate counts haven't been finalized yet but so far Trump has collected 29, Cruz has collected 27, and Kasich has collected nine.

The commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands had their Republican caucuses and Trump won in an absolute landslide taking 73 percent of the vote. The Northern Mariana Islands are a winner take all territory so Trump collects all nine of their delegates. Cruz was the only other candidate to get any real recognition in the Northern Mariana Islands with his second place finish with 24 percent of the vote. Both Kasich and Rubio, who got third and fourth respectively, didn't manage to even collect one percent of the vote, combined. A total of 471 people participated in the Northern Mariana Islands Republican caucuses.

After the polls closed last night the Republican field narrowed again. When talking with WDBO Orlando yesterday Rubio said, “Tomorrow our plan is to be in Utah campaigning irrespective of tonight.” However, after taking a very distant, and rather humiliating, second place in Florida with only 27 percent of the vote, Rubio has thrown in the towel and suspended his Republican presidential campaign despite saying he was going to continue regardless of his performance in Florida. Honestly Rubio has made the right choice, he didn't have a chance at this point of getting the nomination.

The required delegates to win the Republican nomination are 1237 and none of the candidates are there yet, although at this point Trump is the likely contender to reach the required amount by the final day of voting on June 7th. As of the time of writing, Trump has collected 646 delegates which puts him over the half way mark of 619 delegates. He is the only candidate so far to pass the half way mark.

Next is Cruz with his 397 delegates, which doesn't even make him one third of the way, which would be 409 delegates. While he is closing in on the one third mark fast, he is still in a bad place considering Trump's current standing.

Kasich still hasn't dropped out. Last night gave him his first win when he took Ohio but he is currently sitting with 142 delegates and no chance at all of getting the nomination.

At this point Rubio was barely even getting on the scoreboard not even getting ten percent of the vote in all but Florida yesterday. While it is not clear who will pick up Rubio's following, at this point it is likely too small to matter anyway.

Next up for the Republicans is their last stop in March on the 22nd with Arizona, a winner take all state, and Utah, a proportional state, voting. American Samoa also has their Republican caucuses on the 22nd but they are keeping their delegates unbound to any candidate.

On the Democratic side, it is good to remind everyone that while Clinton and Senator Bernie Sanders are the two candidates that are constantly in the news, there are two other candidates still running. Willie Wilson, who was on both Illinois and Missouri's ballots, and Rocky De La Fuente, who was on every state's ballot yesterday except for Florida. Neither candidate is gaining much press nor is either candidate registering with the voters. De La Fuente's best state last night was Ohio getting 0.8 percent of the vote and Wilson's best state last night was Illinois where he gained 0.3 percent of the vote.

As for the contest between Clinton and Sanders, Clinton was the clear winner of the night taking first place in all five states, although two of them were close finishes.

In Florida, who had 246 delegates up for grabs, Clinton was the decisive winner taking 65.4 percent of the vote. Sanders was a distant second place with his 33.3 percent of the vote. Florida is still divvying up the delegates; so far Clinton has collected 130 delegates and Sanders has collected 63. In a much closer competition in Illinois Clinton got 50.5 percent of the vote and Sanders collected 48.7 percent. Illinois had 182 delegates at stake and while the final dispersion isn't completed so far Clinton has collected 68 delegates and Sanders 67.

In Ohio Clinton got 56.5 percent of the vote and Sanders collected 42.7 percent of the vote. Ohio is giving out 159 delegates, which are still being divvied up. So far Clinton has collected 76 of them and Sanders has collected 57. Missouri was the closest race of the night with Clinton barely getting first place with 49.6 percent of the vote. Sanders received 49.4 percent of the vote. There are 84 delegates up for grabs which when dispersed will likely be close to split evenly among the two. In the final race of the night in North Carolina, Clinton received 54.6 percent of the vote and Sanders 40.8 percent. North Carolina is awarding 121delegates and while, like the other states the final count is still being decided, so far Clinton has collected 59 delegates and Sanders has collected 45.

To get the Democratic nomination, a candidate needs to get 2,383 delegates by the last day of voting on June 14th. As of the time of writing Clinton is winning the delegate race with 1,132 delegates, just short of the half way mark of 1,192 delegates that she has won through voters. If you include the 467 superdelegates that are currently pledged to Clinton she has passed the halfway mark with 1,599 delegates.

Sanders has collected 818 delegates from the voters which puts him a little over the one third mark of 786 delegates but 314 delegates behind Clinton, which is still a quite distance away from the front runner. Sanders' total doesn't change much if you add in the 26 superdelegates that are currently pledged to him which brings him up to 844 delegates in total.

De La Fuente and Wilson have collected no delegates at all so far.

Next up for the Democrats, in their second to last contest in March is the 22nd with Arizona, Idaho, and Utah voting.

For the next coverage of The Campaign Trail 2016, for both parties, return after the results are finalized from the voting on March 22nd.

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