Sunday, March 27, 2016

The Campaign Trail 2016: Sanders Steps Up

Last night Senator Bernie Sanders and former Senator Hillary Clinton went head-to-head in caucuses in three western states.

The Last Frontier, the northernmost state in our republic, held its caucuses with 16 delegates up for grabs and Sanders won by a landslide with 81.6 percent of the vote. Sanders collected 13 of the delegates Alaska awarded and Clinton only received three for her 18.4 percent of the vote. The Aloha State, the southernmost state in our republic, and its 25 delegates, also held caucuses. Sanders won again in another landslide victory taking 69.8 percent of the vote. Hawaii gave Sanders 17 delegates for his win. Clinton received eight delegates for her 30 percent of the vote.

The Evergreen State, the only continental state to have a caucus yesterday, had the big prize of the night of 101 delegates. Sanders won the Washington caucuses with a third landslide victory receiving 72.7 percent of the vote. Clinton received 27.1 percent of the vote. Washington is still dividing up the delegates and Sanders should collect the bulk of them.

Last night's win was crucial to the Sanders campaign. Not only does it prove that Sanders can do better in the western side of the republic than he did in the south, a three state win by landslide will give his campaign the momentum that only major victories can give a campaign. As important as both of those are, the most important thing that last night's victory also gave Sanders is a large influx of delegates. Sanders has desperately needed a large influx of delegates and while last night's victory will not catch him up with Clinton, it definitely helps him along the way.

Sanders still has a tough fight ahead of him; he still has to catch up and pass Clinton to get to the magic number of 2,383. However, he has also shown Clinton that the western states are going to be a more bitter fight than the south was.

Next up for both the Democrats and the Republicans is the state of Wisconsin on April 5th. Return after the results are finalized for the next installment of The Campaign Trail 2016.

Wednesday, March 23, 2016

The Campaign Trail 2016: A stalemate for both parties.

Despite Senator Bernie Sanders winning two of the three Democratic primaries both parties essentially had a wash overall yesterday.

The Democrats basically had a stalemate yesterday despite what you may be hearing from various supporters claiming major victories. In Utah Sanders won by a landslide taking 79.3 percent of the vote and former Senator Hillary Clinton only getting 20.3 percent of the vote. Utah had 33 delegates up for grabs and although the complete dispersion is not yet known, so far Sanders has collected 26 delegates and Clinton has collected six. Next up was the second landslide victory of the night for Sanders in Idaho. Sanders managed to get 78 percent of the vote and so far has collected 17 of the 23 delegates that Idaho was giving out. Clinton received 21.2 percent of the vote and has collected five delegates so far.

Clinton won the third, and final contest of the night in Arizona collecting 57.6 percent of the vote. Arizona had 75 delegates to award and Clinton has collected 44 of the delegates so far. Sanders received 39.9 percent of the vote and has collected 30 delegates so far.

As far as the whole night went, Sanders collected 73 delegates so far from yesterday and Clinton collected 55 delegates. What this means is Sanders shortened the gap, for the first time since Nevada, between him and Clinton by 18 delegates. Without counting superdelegates this still leaves him 303 delegates behind Clinton and meaning that as far as assuring claim to the Democratic nomination, neither candidate won last night.

Democrats Abroad finished tallying their votes on the 21st and Sanders was the winner by a landslide with 68.8 percent of the votes. Clinton received 30.9 percent of the votes. This year 34,570 Democrats voted as part of Democrats Abroad and Sanders collected nine delegates and Clinton collected four delegates. There are four additional unpledged delegates that will be determined by superdelegate pledges. Democrats Abroad are Democrats who live in foreign countries and have met the criteria for voting as a Democrat Abroad. The Democratic party recognizes them as the equivalent of one state as far as nomination purposes go. Democrats Abroad can cast their vote via mail, fax, and email from January 11th through March 8th. For those who wanted to vote in person, the Democratic party opened 121 official voting centers in more than 40 countries from March 1st through March 8th.

Next up for the Democrats is their final contest in March. On the 26th Alaska, Hawaii, and Washington state will be having their Democratic contests.

The Republicans only had two contests on the 22nd. The first up was Arizona, a winner take all state with 58 delegates up for grabs. Trump won the state, and all 58 of the delegates, with 47.1 percent of the vote. Senator Ted Cruz came in second with 24.9 percent of the vote and Governor John Kasich came in fourth with ten percent of the vote. Trump's victory margin in Arizona may not be in reality as big as it appears to be. Many Republicans had already voted prior to Senator Marco Rubio dropping out and Rubio actually, despite having suspended his campaign, came in third in Arizona. Rubio's roughly 70,000 votes (and Ben Carson's roughly 14,000) would not have pushed Cruz over Trump so regardless Trump won the state and since Arizona is a winner take all state would have still collected all of the delegates.

In the other Republican contest of the night, Cruz had a landslide victory. Cruz received 69.2 percent of the vote in Utah, a proportional state with 40 delegates. Because Cruz received over 50 percent of the vote Utah awarded him with all 40 delegates. Kasich came in second with 16.9 percent of the vote and Trump came in last with 14 percent of the vote.

As far as how the night went overall for the top two Republican candidates, it was essentially a wash. Kasich received no delegates but Trump only collected 18 more delegates than Cruz. He widened his lead a little, but certainly not by much.

Yesterday was the last contest in March for the Republicans. Next up will be the winner take all state of Wisconsin on April 5th.

For the next coverage of the Democrats return after the final tally of the votes has been completed for voting on March 26th and for the next coverage of the Republicans return after Wisconsin's votes have been tallied from the 5th of April.

Thursday, March 17, 2016

The Campaign Trail 2016: Special Edition: Who still can win?

We are now essentially half way through the presidential primary nomination process and supporters of various candidates still in the 2016 presidential campaigns keep stating that their candidate can still win their respective party's nomination without a brokered convention. But how many of these are actually realistic and how many are just pie in the sky dreams?

This is in no way meant to discourage anyone from voting for their candidate of choice, one should always, no matter what the odds, vote for the the candidate they believe can best fulfill the office of president, anything less is irresponsible voting.

The Republicans require 1,237 delegates to win the nomination and there are still 1061 delegates up for grabs. Otherwise the convention becomes brokered.

Ohio Governor John Kasich is the last of the governors left in the Republican race. He currently has 143 delegates and absolutely no chance to win the primary. Even if he wins every single delegate remaining, he misses the 1,237 mark.

Texas Senator Ted Cruz is the last of the senators left in the Republican race. He currently has 411 delegates. He still stands a chance of winning the Republican primary, but not a very good chance. He is 262 delegates behind the front runner. Enough delegates remain that he can win the primary but the odds are against him. Based on his past performance he won't catch up to the front runner let alone make it to 1,237. There hasn't been a contest since Rubio dropped out but his numbers weren't high enough to push Cruz to the top spot in many of the contests. However, he can't be ruled out yet.

New York Billionaire Donald Trump is the current front runner with 673 delegates right now. He still stands a chance of winning the Republican primary. However at this point it is still questionable whether Trump can get to the required delegate number. He has a better chance of actually winning the nomination via the voters than anyone else left in the Republican primaries but the loss of a few key states could put victory just out of his grasp. He definitely can't be ruled out of winning but it is also not a sure thing either.

The Democrats require 2,383 delegates to win the nomination and there are still 2,308 delegates available.

Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders has 825 delegates from the voters and 26 superdelegates. It is important to remember that superdelegates are not bound to a candidate and although 26 are currently pledged to support Sanders, they can be changed at any time before being committed at the Democratic National Convention in July. It is still possible for Sanders to win the Democratic primary but not likely. Based on his past performance he won't gain enough delegates to make the total even with more superdelegates pledged to him. Democrats award their delegates proportionally, so Sanders needs to do more than just win a state, but he needs to win each one by a large margin to get the delegates. While he can't be ruled out of winning, the odds are very much against him at this point.

Former New York Senator and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has 1,139 delegates from the voters and 467 superdelegates. It is important to remember that superdelegates are not bound to a candidate and although 467 are currently pledged to support Clinton, they can be changed at any time before being committed at the Democratic National Convention in July. Clinton is the safe bet for winning the Democratic primary. Not counting superdelegates Clinton is 52 delegates short of the half way mark and the Democrats are half way through the primaries. Based on her past performance she can still get to the final mark although she may need some of those superdelegates to throw her over.

Wednesday, March 16, 2016

The Campaign Trail 2016: Trump and Clinton each get closer to their party's nomination

Billionaire Donald Trump and former Senator Hillary Clinton steamrolled over their competition last night each getting closer to securing their party's nomination.

For the Republican primaries, Trump won five of the six contests of the day.

Florida, a winner take all state with 99 delegates up for grabs, went to Trump by a landslide with him taking 45.8 percent of the vote. Senator Marco Rubio, who has been hyping up his upcoming win against the billionaire in Florida for the last few weeks, came in a devastating second place with only 27 percent of the vote. Senator Ted Cruz came in third with 17.1 percent of the vote and Governor John Kasich came in last place with only 6.8 percent of the vote. Since Florida is a winner take all state, Trump walked away with all 99 delegates.

Kasich took first place in his home state of Ohio by collecting 46.8 percent of the vote. Since Ohio is also a winner take all state Kasich walks away with all 66 delegates that Ohio had up for grabs. Trump came in second with 35.6 percent of the vote, Cruz third with 13.1 percent of the vote, and Rubio dead last with 2.9 percent of the vote.

Missouri was the last winner take all state to have a competition yesterday and the race was incredibly close all night and into the morning with Trump finishing first with 40.8 percent of the vote. Trump will get 12 of the 52 delegates for his final placement. Since he didn't get over 50 percent of the vote, each candidate who won a congregational district will be getting five delegates per district won. Cruz came close to beating Trump with his final 40.6 percent finish, only 1726 votes behind the billionaire. Kasich came in third with 10.1 percent of the vote and Rubio was in last place again with 6.1 percent of the vote.

In Illinois, a proportional state, there were 69 delegates up for grabs and Trump won the state with 38.8 percent of the vote. Cruz came in second with 30.9 percent of the vote. Kasich came in third with 19.7 percent of the vote and Rubio came in last with 8.7 percent of the vote. The delegates are still being divided up but so far Trump has collected 49, Cruz has collected nine, and Kasich has collected four.

North Carolina was the other proportional state to vote yesterday with 72 delegates at stake and Trump won with 40.2 percent of the vote. Cruz came in second with 36.8 percent of the vote. Kasich was a distant third with 12.7 percent of the vote. And Rubio was, his standard for the night, last with 7.7 percent of the vote. The final delegate counts haven't been finalized yet but so far Trump has collected 29, Cruz has collected 27, and Kasich has collected nine.

The commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands had their Republican caucuses and Trump won in an absolute landslide taking 73 percent of the vote. The Northern Mariana Islands are a winner take all territory so Trump collects all nine of their delegates. Cruz was the only other candidate to get any real recognition in the Northern Mariana Islands with his second place finish with 24 percent of the vote. Both Kasich and Rubio, who got third and fourth respectively, didn't manage to even collect one percent of the vote, combined. A total of 471 people participated in the Northern Mariana Islands Republican caucuses.

After the polls closed last night the Republican field narrowed again. When talking with WDBO Orlando yesterday Rubio said, “Tomorrow our plan is to be in Utah campaigning irrespective of tonight.” However, after taking a very distant, and rather humiliating, second place in Florida with only 27 percent of the vote, Rubio has thrown in the towel and suspended his Republican presidential campaign despite saying he was going to continue regardless of his performance in Florida. Honestly Rubio has made the right choice, he didn't have a chance at this point of getting the nomination.

The required delegates to win the Republican nomination are 1237 and none of the candidates are there yet, although at this point Trump is the likely contender to reach the required amount by the final day of voting on June 7th. As of the time of writing, Trump has collected 646 delegates which puts him over the half way mark of 619 delegates. He is the only candidate so far to pass the half way mark.

Next is Cruz with his 397 delegates, which doesn't even make him one third of the way, which would be 409 delegates. While he is closing in on the one third mark fast, he is still in a bad place considering Trump's current standing.

Kasich still hasn't dropped out. Last night gave him his first win when he took Ohio but he is currently sitting with 142 delegates and no chance at all of getting the nomination.

At this point Rubio was barely even getting on the scoreboard not even getting ten percent of the vote in all but Florida yesterday. While it is not clear who will pick up Rubio's following, at this point it is likely too small to matter anyway.

Next up for the Republicans is their last stop in March on the 22nd with Arizona, a winner take all state, and Utah, a proportional state, voting. American Samoa also has their Republican caucuses on the 22nd but they are keeping their delegates unbound to any candidate.

On the Democratic side, it is good to remind everyone that while Clinton and Senator Bernie Sanders are the two candidates that are constantly in the news, there are two other candidates still running. Willie Wilson, who was on both Illinois and Missouri's ballots, and Rocky De La Fuente, who was on every state's ballot yesterday except for Florida. Neither candidate is gaining much press nor is either candidate registering with the voters. De La Fuente's best state last night was Ohio getting 0.8 percent of the vote and Wilson's best state last night was Illinois where he gained 0.3 percent of the vote.

As for the contest between Clinton and Sanders, Clinton was the clear winner of the night taking first place in all five states, although two of them were close finishes.

In Florida, who had 246 delegates up for grabs, Clinton was the decisive winner taking 65.4 percent of the vote. Sanders was a distant second place with his 33.3 percent of the vote. Florida is still divvying up the delegates; so far Clinton has collected 130 delegates and Sanders has collected 63. In a much closer competition in Illinois Clinton got 50.5 percent of the vote and Sanders collected 48.7 percent. Illinois had 182 delegates at stake and while the final dispersion isn't completed so far Clinton has collected 68 delegates and Sanders 67.

In Ohio Clinton got 56.5 percent of the vote and Sanders collected 42.7 percent of the vote. Ohio is giving out 159 delegates, which are still being divvied up. So far Clinton has collected 76 of them and Sanders has collected 57. Missouri was the closest race of the night with Clinton barely getting first place with 49.6 percent of the vote. Sanders received 49.4 percent of the vote. There are 84 delegates up for grabs which when dispersed will likely be close to split evenly among the two. In the final race of the night in North Carolina, Clinton received 54.6 percent of the vote and Sanders 40.8 percent. North Carolina is awarding 121delegates and while, like the other states the final count is still being decided, so far Clinton has collected 59 delegates and Sanders has collected 45.

To get the Democratic nomination, a candidate needs to get 2,383 delegates by the last day of voting on June 14th. As of the time of writing Clinton is winning the delegate race with 1,132 delegates, just short of the half way mark of 1,192 delegates that she has won through voters. If you include the 467 superdelegates that are currently pledged to Clinton she has passed the halfway mark with 1,599 delegates.

Sanders has collected 818 delegates from the voters which puts him a little over the one third mark of 786 delegates but 314 delegates behind Clinton, which is still a quite distance away from the front runner. Sanders' total doesn't change much if you add in the 26 superdelegates that are currently pledged to him which brings him up to 844 delegates in total.

De La Fuente and Wilson have collected no delegates at all so far.

Next up for the Democrats, in their second to last contest in March is the 22nd with Arizona, Idaho, and Utah voting.

For the next coverage of The Campaign Trail 2016, for both parties, return after the results are finalized from the voting on March 22nd.

Saturday, March 12, 2016

The Campaign Trail 2016: Trump Stumbles

The Republican party has had a busy week. On Thursday just east of Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands held their caucuses, and – in one of the most interesting votes in this very unique presidential campaign – voted to leave them uncommitted. All six of the U.S. Virgin Islands delegates will remain unbound to any candidate until the Republican National Convention in July.

Guam, a United States territory east of the Philippines, held their Republican caucuses today as well, but all six of their delegates aren't bound and will remain uncommitted.

On Friday a rally for Donald Trump was cancelled after Trump's supporters and protesters, several of which were reportedly carrying signs supporting Senator Bernie Sanders, broke out in a fight.

Ben Carson, the second of Trump's former opponents to later endorse the billionaire said, “It's very sad that so many … are being taught that if you don't like what somebody has to say you have the right to interfere with their freedom of speech,” on Fox News' The Kelly File on Friday about the cancellation of Trump's rally.

However, it certainly seems like this is the environment that Trump himself has created at his rallies. Allegedly the billionaire has protesters, even those who are reportedly not interfering with the rallies, thrown out.

Friday's incident of violence at a Trump rally is only one of a trail of violent outbreaks over the campaign. Charges have been filed against a North Carolina rally attendee for allegedly attacking a protester. Countless videos have surfaced on social media platforms showing Trump supporters attacking protesters at rallies.

The violence doesn't seem to stop with the attendees. There have been incidents where secret service agents have been accused of unnecessary violence at Trump rallies against protesters. Allegedly Breitbart reporter Michelle Fields was forcefully taken down by Corey Lewandowski, campaign manager for Trump, at a press conference. Trump's campaign denies the claim but Washington Post reporter Ben Terris reportedly said he witnessed the attack.

This violent streak at Trump rallies should be of concern to not just Republicans but all people and Trump needs to come out and condemn violence and attacks at his rallies, including violence from his supporters.

Sadly this is not the case.

“My people are nice. Thousands and thousands of people, they caused no problem. They were taunted, they were harassed by these other people. These other people, by the way, some represent Bernie, our communist. … He should really get up and say to his people stop, stop,” Trump said at his rally in Dayton, Ohio Saturday.

This is in no way saying that some of Sanders' supporters and other protesters didn't start some of the violence but I don't believe that Trump's supporters didn't either. Every candidate should be condemning these actions and Carson needs to educate himself on the freedom of speech, since that would cover protesters as well.

Trump had his first major stumble in his 2016 campaign failing to win a single state today.

Senator Ted Cruz dominated the first major contest of the day taking the Wyoming caucuses by a major landslide taking 66 percent of the vote. In an incredibly distant second place was Senator Marco Rubio with 20 percent of the vote. In third place, with quite possibly his lowest vote count of the 2016 Republican presidential campaign trail was Trump with seven percent of the vote. Gov. John Kasich didn't resonate with caucus goers in Wyoming and came in last with zero percent of the vote and, according to the Associated Press, not a single caucus vote. Wyoming will be dispersing 26 delegates. Wyoming hasn't dispersed all their delegates, however, Cruz will be expecting the most of the dispersion with Rubio and Trump likely to collect some.

In the District of Columbia there were 19 delegates up for grabs, and Rubio came in first in a very close race with Kasich. Rubio gained 37.3 percent of the vote and Kasich 35.5 percent of the vote. Trump was third and a very distant third with 13.8 percent of the vote and Cruz came in last with 12.4 percent of the vote. As of yet the delegates aren't divvied up yet but it is safe to assume Rubio and Kasich will both get some. It is not yet known if Trump or Cruz will collect any delegates.

In the next Republican showdown is when things start getting tough for the candidates. On the 15th Illinois and North Carolina vote with proportional delegate awards and the states of Florida, Missouri, and Ohio along with the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands all hold winner take all contests. These will be the first winner take all contests of the 2016 campaign.

Former Senator Hillary Clinton won the only caucus that the Democratic party held today. The good news for Senator Bernie Sanders is this one doesn't make the gap too much bigger. The Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, which is located next to Guam and roughly 1,600 miles east of the Philippines, held their Democratic caucuses and Clinton won with 54 percent of the vote. Sanders collected 34 percent of the vote; it is currently unknown who the other 12 percent of the vote went to. While this sounds like a huge victory for Clinton, it really isn't. Clinton only received 102 votes – Sanders 65 – and Clinton only collected four delegates. Sanders received two delegates. Clinton also collected one pledged superdelegate, the commonwealth's other four delegates remain unpledged. Clinton and Sanders will face off again on the 15th in Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio.

Former Gov. Gary Johnson, the current front runner for the Libertarian party, is getting noticed by both the broadsheets and the digital news services. On Thursday The Huffington Post, a digital news service, ran the article “Meet the Third Party” focusing on Johnson. On Tuesday, the local broadsheet The Richmond-Times Dispatch ran the opinion article “The GOP's third-party option.” Fox Business has already been paying attention to Johnson and Johnson spoke at CPAC on March 3rd and March 5th. During an election where both Democrats and Republicans are expressing disdain for their respective party's likely nominees, this early coverage of Johnson should help him in securing the Libertarian party nomination and help get his name out as a viable alternative to the two major parties.

Return after the results on the 15th for coverage of both the Democratic and Republican parties.

Wednesday, March 9, 2016

The Campaign Trail 2016: Trump rolls on and Sanders causes an upset, the Events of March 8

Donald Trump continues to steamroll through the Republican primaries and Senator Bernie Sanders causes an upset in Michigan, but is it really the upset it is being made out to be?

The two main Democratic candidates faced off in two states last night in their struggle for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination. Sanders pulled off a massive upset from what the polls predicted coming in first in Michigan. According to the pollsters, former Senator Hillary Clinton was expected to take the state by a decent margin. The two candidates struggled all night as the results came in showing them neck and neck all night. The final tally has supporters of Sanders cheering and the Sanders campaign talking up the win, is this win everything it is being made out to be?

While Sanders now has the biggest upset in election history since 1984 when Gary Hart won the New Hampshire primary and is definitely winning with press coverage over the win, Sanders still lost the night and unfortunately for his campaign is continuing the trend that started in South Carolina. The final results for Michigan were Sanders in first place with 49.9 percent of the vote and Clinton in second place with 48.2 percent of the vote.

It is this finishing that takes away what could have made this a big win for the Sanders campaign. The 130 delegates that Michigan are awarding are still being divvied up, so far Sanders has collected 65 and Clinton has collected 58. Both can expect to receive more before the final division is decided. In the 2016 Democratic primary, all the states award their delegates proportionally, which means that the award entirely depends on how well you do. Since Sanders and Clinton almost tied in Michigan, the final delegate award will be almost equal. So while the Sanders campaign can call Michigan a win, as far as the all important delegates go, it is essentially a wash, which brings us to the second contest of the night.

In Mississippi there were 36 delegates up for stake and Clinton took the state by a landslide collecting 82.6 percent of the vote. Mississippi is also still dividing their delegates, so far Clinton has collected 29 delegates and Sanders has collected four delegates. It is these delegate awards that really show how the night went.

Before the delegate awards from last night, Sanders trailed Clinton by 198 delegates won through primaries and caucuses. So far for March 8th, Sanders has collected 69 more delegates with more to be awarded and Clinton has collected 87 delegates with more to be awarded. This scenario is what has been playing out time and time again for Sanders ever since South Carolina. He may get a victory in name but at the end of the day, Clinton adds more delegates than him and increases the span between the two more and more making a victory harder and harder for Sanders to achieve. This doesn't mean that the race is over for Sanders, yet, but he needs to turn this trend around soon and close the gap to be able to pull ahead or he will find himself in an insurmountable hole.

Democrats Abroad finished their voting period yesterday and their 21 delegates are still being divided up. With the results that are in so far, Sanders is leading with 69 percent of the vote. This isn't overly surprising, for the town hall video conference for Democrats Abroad Sanders was the representative for his campaign whereas Jake Sullivan and Madeleine Albright were the representatives for the Clinton campaign, not Clinton herself. The final results of Democrats Abroad wont' be released until March 21st, so this can't be counted as a win yet for Sanders.

Next up for the Democrats is the territory of Northern Mariana Islands near the Philippians. The Northern Mariana Islands hold their caucuses on March 12th. After The Northern Mariana Islands are the states of Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio on March 15th.

Trump dominated the March 8th states with wins in three of the four states that had contests and Senator Marco Rubio and Governor John Kasich had an intense fight for last place in almost all four states.

Trump won the tropical island paradise of Hawaii with 42.4 percent of the vote with Senator Ted Cruz coming in second with 32.7 percent of the vote. The 19 delegates are still being divided and so far Trump has collected ten of the delegates and Cruz has collected six. Rubio and Kasich spent the night almost deadlocked in their fight for last place with Kasich finally taking the prize of fourth place and Rubio getting the third place spot. It is unlikely that Rubio or Kasich will receive any delegates from Hawaii.

In Idaho Cruz gained his one victory of the night with 45.4 percent of the vote. Trump came in a distant second with 28.1 percent of the vote. Idaho had 32 delegates up for grabs and has awarded Cruz 20 delegates and Trump 12 delegates. Rubio and Kasich again fought in Idaho for last place and when the dust had settled again Kasich found himself winning the fourth place spot with Rubio coming in third. Rubio and Kasich weren't awarded any delegates for their struggles.

In Michigan Trump took the state with 36.5 percent of the vote. In the Republican major upset of the night Cruz found himself fighting with Kasich of all candidates for the second place spot. Cruz ended up winning the battle with 24.9 percent of the vote with Kasich getting third with 24.3 percent of the vote. Rubio found himself in a distant fourth not even gaining ten percent of the vote. Trump will be getting 25 of Michigan's 59 delegates. Cruz and Kasich, in his only delegate win of the night, will both be getting 17 delegates each. Rubio will be the only candidate to walk away form Michigan empty handed.

Trump received his third win of the night in Mississippi claiming 47.3 percent of the vote. Cruz came in second with 36.3 percent of the vote. Mississippi gave out 40 delegates. The final delegate tallies are still being decided but so far Trump has received 24 delegates and Cruz 13. Rubio and Kasich again found themselves locked in a bare knuckle brawl for last place. The two of them put together only managed to take 14% of the vote. In the end Rubio won the fourth place slot with Kasich getting third. Rubio only won bragging rights though as Mississippi isn't awarding either with delegates.

Trump proved once again that he is his own man and listens to no one completely throwing aside the words Retired General Colin Powell said earlier this week about the current Republican campaigns and behaved more like a carnival barker at his victory speech than a president hawking Trump steaks to the attendees. He also had Trump water, Trump wine and Trump magazine on hand. Trump does have a lot to celebrate through, he is the first of the Republican candidates to break the one-third mark of the required delegate total.

Trump has collected 71 delegates over the course of the night bringing his total delegates up to 458. Cruz collected 56 delegates bringing his total up to 359. Kasich actually managed to collect 17 delegates last night bringing his grand total up to 54. Rubio's delegate total continues to be stagnate at 151. Rubio's performance is actually getting worse as the campaign goes on and neither he nor Kasich have any shot left of winning the Republican nomination.

Next up for the Republicans is The District of Columbia on March 12th with their 19 delegates. Washington D.C. is the last chance that the Republican candidates have before winner take all states start up. The territory of Guam is holding their caucuses on the 12th as well, but they aren't binding any delegates to any candidate. Then on the 15th are the states of Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio along with the territory of the Northern Mariana Islands. Four of the six states and territories voting on the 15th are winner take all states which will start adding to some delegate counts and showing why other candidates should have left the field ages ago.

Return after the results of March 12th for the next update on The Campaign Trail 2016.

Tuesday, March 8, 2016

The Campaign Trail 2016: A Bumpy Road

For the Republicans, not much has happened since the events of the weekend of Super Saturday. No candidates have dropped out nor have any indicated that they plan to. Everything seems to be the same as it has as they march into the primaries on March 8th in Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, and Mississippi. This is almost the last chance for the Republican candidates before some states start becoming winner take all states and where delegate counts start moving up fast and the Republican nominee becomes sorted out.

Retired General and Former Secretary of State Colin Powell spoke to Michel Martin on All Things Considered on National Public Radio about the state of the Republican campaign trail. In a far more appropriate speech, given what has been witnessed from the Republican Party during the 2016 Campaign Trail, than former Governor and 2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney did, Powell spoke out about the actions of the presidential candidates belittling the country and office of president. Whether this will have any effect on the 2016 campaign, which has even at this point managed to include a debate over Billionaire Donald Trump's penis size on national television is unknown, but hopefully Powell's words will sink in.

For the Democrats not much has changed either. Sunday night while the Maine Democratic caucuses were being concluded Senator Bernie Sanders and former Senator Hillary Clinton were debating in Flint Michigan on CNN. Despite both candidates claiming victory at the debate, most accounts show that neither candidate won and did much to change the opinion of the voters. The two will face off on March 8th in Michigan and Mississippi. March 8th will also conclude the voting period for Democrats Abroad.

One subject regarding the Democratic 2016 campaign trail that needs to be brought up are the delegate counts. It won't take someone long to go out on the internet and find griping about the delegate count of the two candidates and even claims that some networks can't even be trusted because of the delegate counts they are showing. It may even be confusing when one sees a delegate count where Clinton is already over 1,000 delegates and Sanders is below 500. These delegate counts are including superdelegates, which are unbound until the 2016 Democratic National Convention being held in Philadelphia from July 25th through July 28th. However the networks showing these totals aren't lying to the readers or viewers as these superdelegates have currently been pledged to the candidates they are showing for. So they aren't lying to the reader or viewer.

More importantly, and what is being completely glazed over in all these discussions and claims are what the delegate counts are showing, which is what is most important especially since the Democratic primary processes does not include winner take all states like the Republican one does. The Democratic primary process is proportional depending on how well each candidate does. Before South Carolina, Sanders and Clinton were tied on delegates they had won through voting in the various states. Before the voting on March 8th, Sanders is now in a deficit of almost 200 delegates. After each series of voting, the deficit has been growing more and more. Every time that deficit grows it makes it harder for Sanders to win as he has a bigger hill to climb just to even back out. This is what the discussion should be over.

And now on to the voting on March 8th. For the next coverage of The Campaign Trail 2016 return after the results of March 8th are finalized. The results from Democrats Abroad probably won't be discussed here until March 11th.

Sunday, March 6, 2016

The Campaign Trail 2016: Super Saturday plus the events on Sunday

On Super Saturday, Donald Trump and Senator Ted Cruz split the Republican caucuses and primary while Senator Bernie Sanders cleans up the Democratic caucuses and primary. Sunday Senator Marco Rubio got his second win of the campaign and Sanders won again in a landslide victory.

Saturday, Sanders won both of the two Democratic caucuses that took place, Kansas and Nebraska. Former Senator Hillary Clinton took the Democratic primary in Louisiana. Kansas was a major landslide in Sanders' favor, gaining 68 percent of the vote and 23 delegates. Sanders also won Nebraska, in a much closer contest with 57 percent of the vote and gained an additional 14 delegates. Clinton added 10 delegates to her count from each of those states.

Clinton took Louisiana in a landslide victory carrying 71 percent of the vote and netting another 35 delegates. Sanders added an additional 12 delegates from the Bayou State.

On Sunday, Sanders had another landslide victory in the Maine Caucuses. The full count is still ongoing and the delegates haven't been fully divided up yet.

So how are the two major candidates in the Democratic presidential primaries actually doing so far? For the Democrats, it is all about the delegates. They are awarded proportionally by how well a performance was done in the polls. As of March 5th, Clinton has won 652 delegates through the polls and Sanders has won 454 delegates. Neither of these counts bring in superdelegates. Sanders needs to get more wins in the states with higher delegate awards if he is going to close the gap between himself and Clinton. The first one to 2,383 delegates, including superdelegates, gets the Democratic presidential nomination and there are still 3,136 delegates up for grabs.

Next up for the Democrats are Michigan and Mississippi on March 8th, which is the same day that Democrats Abroad finish their voting.

Saturday, Cruz took Kansas with a landslide 48 percent of the votes netting him 24 delegates. Trump came in second with 23 percent of the vote and nine delegates. Rubio came in third with 17 percent of the vote and received six delegates. Kasich came in last and received one delegate.

Cruz also took Maine's caucuses with 46 percent of the vote picking up 12 more delegates. Trump came in second with 33 percent of the vote and gaining nine more delegates. Kasich came in third with 12 percent of the vote and added two delegates. Rubio came in last and received no delegates in the dispersion.

Trump took Kentucky in a very close contest gaining 36 percent of the vote and 17 delegates. Cruz was a narrow second with 32 percent of the vote getting 15 delegates. Rubio came in a distant third with 16 percent of the vote and Kasich came in last. Rubio and Kasich each collected seven delegates.

Trump also came in first in another close contest in Louisiana. The Bayou State gave Trump 41 percent of the vote and second place finisher Cruz 38 percent of the vote. Both collected 18 delegates each. Rubio came in very distant third with 11 percent of the vote and collected five delegates. Kasich came in last and received no reward for that.

Sunday Puerto Rico held their primaries. Being a territory, despite desperately wanting to be a state, Puerto Rico can't participate in the general election but gets to participate in the presidential nomination process. Rubio reportedly took Puerto Rico with a landslide and got all 23 of their delegates.

Cutting through all the propaganda, myths, inaccuracies, and false speculation, how are the candidates actually doing at this point? There are 1,585 delegates left to be awarded through the Republican primary process and a candidate needs to collect 1,237 delegates to become the Republican nominee. From worst to best here are the remaining Republican presidential candidates.

Kasich should have dropped out a long time ago. He gained a measly 10 delegates over the weekend, bringing his grand total up to 35 delegates – keeping him far – and dead last – from everyone who hasn't suspended their campaigns. Kasich has failed to win a single state or territory so far. Kasich stated Sunday morning to George Stephanopoulos on This Week that he is staying in the election. He alluded to, but never directly stated, wanting a brokered Republican National Convention and getting the Republican nomination through that process.

Rubio is in third place in the nomination contest and also should have dropped out at this point. He has won only two states and territories so far. This weekend Rubio took in a total of 51 delegates and has a total of 146 delegates. As of now, Rubio needs to double his delegates just to catch up with Cruz, who is in the second place slot right now.

Cruz has won a total of six states so far for a total of 291 delegates. This weekend added 69 delegates to Cruz's collection. With his growing number of wins as the contest goes on, Cruz is still very capable of passing Trump and taking the first place spot, especially if he can start taking the winner takes all states.

And in first place is Trump with a grand total of 12 wins and 375 delegates. This weekend added 53 delegates, which puts him in second for delegates over the weekend. He has to keep up his wins to prevent Cruz from overtaking him.

So why all the talk about who came in number one? Because the rules for the Republican primaries change after four more states and the District of Columbia vote. Prior to March 15th, states have to award delegates proportionally based on performance at the polls. Starting on March 15th some states become winner take all, which means that third and fourth don't matter anymore.

Next up for the Republicans are Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, and Missouri on March 8th.

Return on March 7th for the next update on The Campaign Trail 2016.

Friday, March 4, 2016

The Campaign Trail 2016: Super Tuesday is over, what comes next?

Donald Trump won big for the Republican Party and former Senator Hillary Clinton won big for the Democratic Party on Super Tuesday. Both will be looking to continue their momentum as their opponents try to knock them out of their front running positions on Saturday. As things heat up for the Republican and Democratic parties, the Libertarian party announces its first debate for the 2016 presidential campaign.

After the results of Super Tuesday, former GOP presidential nominee hopeful Gov. Chris Christie stumped for Trump appearing with the billionaire for his speech and hyping up his campaign hoping to keep Trump's momentum going and attract more of the party to his campaign.

Meanwhile on Thursday morning the GOP 2012 Republican presidential nominee, former Gov. Mitt Romney made a highly publicized speech attacking Trump. Romney lambasted the billionaire 2016 Republican front runner while urging voters to go with Senator Ted Cruz, Gov. John Kasich, or Senator Marco Rubio instead, strangely leaving out Ben Carson of the statement.

After Super Tuesday Carson opted not to attend the Republican debate on Thursday night, but he did not officially suspend his campaign until Friday evening.

“I do not see a political path forward in light of last evening’s Super Tuesday primary results,” said the official statement released by Carson's campaign on March 2nd.

Despite doing only slightly better than Carson at the polls, there is no sign yet that Kasich is suspending his campaign. The far from the lead third place contender Rubio has stated he is not suspending his campaign.

“No matter how many states it takes, no matter how many weeks and months it takes, we are going to stop Donald Trump, and win this election,” said Rubio's campaign in an email sent out to likely supporters on March 3rd.

After seeing Thursday night's GOP debate, not attending might have managed to actually boost Carson since this debate caused the three major candidates to sink even lower than previous debates, however he was at the point there was no chance he could get the Republican nomination. Somehow now even Trump's penis size was a debatable topic between Rubio and Trump in this debate.

How any of this will potentially effect what voters do at the polls on Saturday is unknown. Will Trump keep up his dominating winning streak? Will Cruz push his way toward the top? Can Rubio get himself out of his floundering third place standing? Will Kasich continue to stay in the race? On Saturday we will find out when Kansas, Kentucky, and Maine hold their caucuses and Louisiana holds its primary.

In a far more civil appearing battle Clinton and Senator Bernie Sanders continue to battle it out in their close race for the Democratic nomination. Sanders had a disappointing day on Super Tuesday only taking four states.

Then another blow came to his campaign. Sanders' win in Colorado on Super Tuesday became a win in name only. Sanders won the popular vote but due to delegate dispersion, he and former Senator Hillary Clinton managed to tie in the state, each walking away with 38 delegates.

Sanders' campaign has been promoting much better results for the candidate projecting wins in three states over the weekend. This is a move obviously designed to bring out Sanders' supporters and keep them from being frustrated after Super Tuesday, but if Sanders can't win the three projected states this prediction could sink his campaign.

Saturday the two will face off at the Kansas and Nebraska caucuses and Louisiana primary. The two will also face off in the Maine caucuses on Sunday.

The Libertarian party announced Wednesday that a televised debate of the Libertarian presidential candidates will take place on Fox Business Network on April 1st and will be moderated by John Stossel. This is a great opportunity for voters, who have been vocalizing dissatisfaction with the elites of their prospective parties, to see the different potential Libertarian nominees before the general election. There are currently 12 candidates vying for the nomination including the 2012 Libertarian Party nominee former Gov. Gary Johnson and cybersecurity expert John McAfee. Not all of the candidates will be participating in the debate. The Libertarian nominee will be picked at the Libertarian Party National Convention that runs from May 27 until May 30 in Orlando, Florida.

For the next coverage of The Campaign Trail 2016 for the Republican and Democratic parties, come back after the Saturday caucuses and primary results are finalized. Coverage of the Libertarian party will be available when more information is released.

Wednesday, March 2, 2016

The Campaign Trail 2016: Super Tuesday



Yesterday was Super Tuesday, the biggest day in the modern race to The White House and for Donald Trump and former Senator Hillary Clinton it certainly was a super day. For everybody else in the race it was an abysmal day.

For the Republicans, Trump was the huge winner. He won seven of the eleven states that held Republican primaries or caucuses. Senator Ted Cruz came in second with three wins and Senator Marco Rubio trailed third with one win. Gov. John Kasich and Ben Carson failed to take a single state.

Las Vegas bookmakers would now tell you that Trump is the safe bet for the Republican nominee for president. Odds currently look bleak for Cruz knocking Trump from his first place seat but it isn't out of the realm of possibility. As far as this election is concerned, Rubio, Kasich, and Carson are dead men walking. At this point all three should drop out. Speculation can now begin as to whether Gov. Chris Christie, who has been stumping for Trump since his endorsement of the billionaire last week, will be Trump's pick for vice president.

A breakdown of how each Super Tuesday state went is available below.

The Alabama primary, which had 50 delegates up for grabs, went to Trump with 43 percent of the vote, giving him 36 delegates from Alabama. Second place went to Cruz with 21.1 percent of the vote, giving him 13 delegates, and the third place spot went to Rubio with 18.7 percent of the vote, giving him one delegate. Carson took fourth and Kasich finished in last place.

Alaska had their caucuses yesterday and had 28 delegates up for grabs. Cruz took the number one spot with 36.4 percent of the vote and 12 of the delegates. Trump was a close second place with 33.5 percent of the vote and 11 delegates. Rubio was a distant third with 15.1 percent of the vote and gaining five delegates. Carson took the fourth place slot and Kasich finished last again.

As of the time of printing Arkansas hadn't finished tallying the results from their primary. However it is safe to state that Trump took the first slot with Cruz in second and Rubio in third. The fourth place slot went to Carson with Kasich finishing last yet again. Arkansas has 40 delegates up for grabs and the exact amount each candidate will get has not yet been finalized but Trump will be receiving at least 16 delegates , Cruz will be receiving at least 14 delegates, and Rubio will be receiving at least nine delegates from Arkansas.

Georgia is also still tallying the results from their Republican primary as well so delegate awards aren't finalized yet either but it is safe to call Trump the winner, with Rubio in second place and Cruz in third place. Carson is again in the fourth slot with Kasich again finishing fifth. Georgia has 76 delegates up for grabs which will be divided up among Trump, Rubio, and Cruz.

Massachusetts has 42 delegates up for grabs in their primary and Trump took the first place slot by a huge margin with 49.3 percent of the vote. Kasich was in distant second with 18 percent of the vote and Rubio took third with 17.8 percent of the vote. Cruz took the fourth place spot with 9.6% of the vote and Carson was in last place. Trump will get 22 delegates from Massachusetts, Kasich and Rubio both get eight delegates each, and Cruz will get four delegates.

Minnesota is still tallying up the results from their caucuses and so who gets what percentage of their 38 delegates is still undecided as well. The final positions for the candidates are clear at this time though. Rubio took his only first place spot in Minnesota. Cruz took the second place spot and Trump took the third place spot. As we have seen several times already Carson was in fourth with Kasich in fifth. Rubio will receive at least 17 delegates, Cruz will receive at least 13 delegates, and Trump will receive at least eight delegates.

Oklahoma had 43 delegates to award and Cruz took the top. He was followed by Trump and then Rubio. Carson and Kasich took fourth and fifth respectively. As of yet the full dispersion of delegates for Oklahoma has not been finalized. Cruz will receive at least 14 delegates, Trump will receive at least 12 delegates, and Rubio will receive at least 11 delegates.

In Tennessee a total of 58 delegates were up for grabs. Trump came in first with 38.9 percent of the vote and walked away with 31 delegates. Cruz took the second place slot with 24.7 percent of the vote and collected 14 delegates and Rubio came in third with 21.2 percent of the vote and gained nine more delegates. Carson and Kasich came in fourth and fifth as we have seen over and over again last night. The rest of the delegates haven't been dispersed yet.

In Texas there was gold last night with 155 delegates up for the taking, the biggest award of the night. Cruz took the top slot by a landslide with 43.8 percent of the vote and will be receiving over 99 delegates. Trump took the number two spot with 26.8 percent of the vote and will be getting over 38 delegates and Rubio was a distant third with 17.7 percent of the vote and at least four delegates. The rest of the delegates haven't been dispersed yet.

In Vermont there were 16 delegates up for grabs and Trump was the victor, with 32.7 percent of the vote, with Kasich in a very close number two finish, with 30.4 percent of the vote. Rubio was a distant third with 19.3 percent and Cruz and Carson took up fourth and fifth respectively. So far Vermont has awarded Trump and Kasich six delegates each. The rest have not yet been dispersed.

The last contest of the day took place in the Commonwealth of Virginia where 49 delegates were at stake. Trump took the first prize slot with 34.7 percent of the vote and 17 delegates. Rubio came in a very close second with 31.9 percent of the vote and collected 16 delegates. Cruz came in a distant third and collected eight delegates. Kasich came in fourth and collected five delegates and Carson came in fifth and collected three delegates, the only delegates he collected on Super Tuesday.

A total of 595 delegates will be awarded for the night. With the delegates that have been awarded Trump has collected 197 so far with more to come for the night and Cruz has collected 191 so far with more to come. Rubio, who mostly got third place all night, has collected 80 with more to come. Kasich, who outside of getting second place twice couldn't stay out of fourth and fifth place, will be getting at least 19 delegates. Carson, who couldn't get out of fourth and fifth place, will be getting at least three delegates.

Next up for the Republican caucuses are Kansas, with 40 delegates up for grabs, Kentucky, with 46 delegates up for grabs, and Maine, with 23 delegates up for grabs on March 5th. Also on March 5th will be the Republican primaries in Louisiana, with 46 delegates up for grabs.

For the Democrats, Clinton dominated the day with wins in seven of the eleven states up for grabs and she also took the territory that also held their caucuses on Super Tuesday. Senator Bernie Sanders took four of the states.

As of this moment Las Vegas bookmakers wouldn't tell you that the Democratic nominee is as safe a bet to call as of yet. While yes Clinton has collected more delegates than Sanders through citizens voting and has collected considerably more of the superdelegates pledged than Sanders has, as far as the delegates that have been bound through voting Sanders still isn't that far behind Clinton. And superdelegates aren't bound until actually pledged at the Democratic National Convention. While the odds are slowly slipping away from him, Sanders could still win the Democratic nomination.

A breakdown of how each Super Tuesday state and territory went is available below.

In Alabama there were 50 delegates up for stake and Clinton dominated first place with 77.8 percent of the vote. Clinton walked away with 44 of the delegates and Sanders received the other nine. In Arkansas voters were awarding 32 delegates. Clinton won with 66.3 percent of the vote and received another 22 delegates. Sanders got the remaining ten. In the Colorado caucuses 66 delegates were at stake and Sanders won with 59 percent of the vote and received 38 delegates. Clinton received the remaining 28.

In Georgia there were 102 delegates up for grabs and the state is still dividing up the delegates. Clinton won the state with a dominating 71.3 percent of the vote and is getting at least 72 delegates. So far Sanders has been awarded 28 delegates. In Massachusetts there were 91 delegates at stake and Clinton narrowly beat Sanders with 50.1 percent of the vote. The delegates are almost split in half with Clinton getting 46 and Sanders getting 45. Minnesota is still tallying up the results of their caucuses but Sanders is the clear winner. Of the 77 delegates up for grabs so far Sanders has collected 46 and Clinton has collected 29.

Oklahoma voters went with Sanders in a narrow victory awarding him 51.9 percent of the vote. The total division of the delegates hasn't been finalized yet but so far Sanders has collected 21 of the 38 total delegates up for grabs and Clinton has collected 16. In Tennessee, where 67 delegates were up for grabs Clinton won the state with 66.1 percent of the vote. The final delegate awards have not been finalized but so far Clinton has collected 42 delegates and Sanders 22 delegates. In Texas the biggest prize of the night, 222 delegates were up for grabs. Clinton managed to take first place with 65.2 percent of the vote. Texas is still divvying up the delegates but so far Clinton has received 144 and Sanders has gotten 73.

Sanders' home state of Vermont had 16 delegates up for grabs and Sanders dominated the state with 86.1 percent of the vote taking all 16 delegates. And last, but not least, in the Commonwealth of Virginia there were 95 delegates up for grabs. The final division of the delegates is still being decided. Clinton won Virginia with 64.3 percent of the vote. So far she has collected 61 of the delegates and Sanders has collected 32 delegates.

In the American territory of American Samoa, seven South Pacific islands near Australia with a population of roughly 52,000 Clinton was the winner. Since American Samoa is a territory and not a state, they can participate in the nomination process for president but they can't vote in the general election. A total of 223 voters came out to caucus in American Samoa with 73 percent of the caucus goers voting for Clinton and awarding her eight delegates. Sanders ended up with three delegates from the territory.

A total of 870 delegates were at stake for the night and so far Clinton has collected 512 of them and Sanders has collected 343 of them. If Sanders can't start collecting more delegates, he won't become the Democratic nominee.

Next up for the Democratic caucuses are Kansas, with 33 delegates up for grabs, and Nebraska, with 25 delegates up for grabs on March 5th. Also on March 5th will be the Democratic primaries in Louisiana, with 51 delegates up for grabs. Democrats will also caucus in Maine for 25 delegates on March 6.

For the next coverage of The Campaign Trail 2016, for both the Republican and Democratic parties, return on March 4th.