Super Tuesday, the day that can make or
break a campaign, is tomorrow. Candidates from both parties stand to
win big and lose badly.
There is no doubt that after Super
Tuesday the Republican field will be winnowed down again, probably
very significantly. Eleven states consisting of Alabama, Alaska,
Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee,
Texas, Vermont, and Virginia will all be holding primaries or
caucuses to award their delegates. A total of 595 delegates are up
for grabs.
Trump is 536 delegates away from being
half way to the total he needs to become the Republican nominee. If
Trump sweeps all of the Super Tuesday states he could ensure that no
other candidate gets enough delegates to win the nomination. Then
again, subsequently other candidates could win enough to ensure Trump
doesn't either.
Donald Trump is currently riding high.
Last week he got his third straight win and locked down the high
profile endorsement of former opponent Gov. Chris Christie. Can he
keep this winning streak up? Will he dominate the board and all but
assure he gets the Republican nomination? Will moderate Christie's
endorsement bring over voters from Rubio and Kasich? Or will Trump's refusal to initially
disavow the endorsement from former Ku Klux Klan grand wizard David
Duke hurt him?
How the last Republican debate will
effect the voters is unclear. Trump, Rubio, and Cruz looked for a
while like they were going to break out in a street fight during the
campaign with the moderator, Wolf Blitzer, losing complete control of
the three. How this might effect the supporters of the leading three
is unknown.
What Gov. John Kasich or Ben Carson
hope to accomplish at this point is completely unknown but as of yet
neither one has suspended their campaigns. All that is clear is that
any candidate that wants to stay in this race needs to win at least
four of the states up for grabs. Anyone who can't manage to secure
that many wins is all but finished in this race.
The state of Colorado will also be
having Republican caucuses but they are not binding their delegates
to any preferential vote by the voters.
On the Democratic side, the stakes are
just as high. Former Senator Hillary Clinton and Senator Bernie
Sanders will be butting heads in eleven states and one territory
tomorrow. Eligible voters in the states of Alabama, Arkansas,
Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee,
Texas, Vermont, and Virginia will all be casting their vote to award
their states' delegates tomorrow. Eligible voters in the territory
of American Samoa will be caucusing tomorrow as well. A total of 875
delegates are up for grabs on Tuesday both candidates desperately
need every one of those delegates.
For obvious reasons, Clinton is likely
to easily take Arkansas and Sanders is likely to take Vermont but who
wins each of the states tomorrow is up to the voters. So far, as far
as delegates awarded by the voters are concerned, Clinton and Sanders
are almost tied. Neither one is out of the race yet by any means but
if either Clinton or Sanders can manage to sweep the Super Tuesday
states, they can use the momentum gained to likely become the
Democratic nominee. If they manage to split the delegates, as they
have been doing so far, this will end up being a long and hard fight
for both candidates.
Clinton is trying to use her first
landslide victory last week to propel her to victory. Sanders is
hoping to bring out enough of his supporters to thwart Clinton's
current momentum.
Tomorrow also starts the in-person
voting for Democrats abroad. Democrats abroad are Democrats who live
in foreign countries and have met the criteria for voting as a
Democrat abroad. The Democratic party recognizes them as the
equivalent of one state as far as nomination purposes go. Democrats
abroad can cast their vote via mail, fax, and email from January 11th
through March 8th. For those who want to vote in person,
the Democratic party opens 121 official voting centers in more than
40 countries from March 1st through March 8th.
For the next coverage of the 2016
campaign trail for both the Democratic and Republican parties, return
after the results from Super Tuesday have been finalized.
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