Sunday, April 10, 2016

The Campaign Trail 2016: What does Wyoming's results actually mean?

All the talk in the media has been about the upcoming primary in New York. Is former Senator Hillary Clinton leading? Is Senator Bernie Sanders gaining ground? Billionaire Donald Trump is leading the polls but are Senator Ted Cruz or Governor John Kasich polling high enough they will capture any delegates from New York?

Roughly a month ago the Republican party held their Wyoming caucuses, one of the ones that Cruz managed to take, but what has slipped by in the news with very little fanfare are the Democratic Wyoming caucuses that occurred yesterday. Why has the Democratic Wyoming caucuses slipped through with so little talk? Nestled in between Wisconsin's 91 delegates and New York's 291 delegates, Wyoming's 18 delegate award seems rather paltry and insignificant.

Sanders won the Equality State with 55.7 percent of the vote. A win for Sanders that only exists in name only. Despite Clinton only taking 44.3 percent of the vote, both Sanders and Clinton split the delegates 50/50 so neither candidate gained any ground at all delegate wise in the state.

So was there any real benefit for either candidate from the Wyoming caucuses?

For Sanders, this is his seventh victory in a row, which will help the candidate build momentum for his campaign, something that Sanders desperately needs right now at this late stage in the 2016 presidential nomination campaign. Considering that at this point, before superdelegates currently pledged are factored in, Sanders needs to collected roughly 69 percent of all remaining unpledged delegates to just reach the total delegates needed to secure the Democratic nomination (If you do factor in pledged superdelegates Sanders only needs to win roughly 68 percent of all remaining unpledged delegates to reach the target goal.).

For Clinton, she didn't lose any ground in her lead over Sanders due to the Wyoming caucuses. Since the delegate count is the all important decider of who will be the 2016 Democratic presidential nominee, maintaining that lead over Sanders is vitally important for Clinton if she is going to have any hope of winning the primary without the Democratic National Convention in July becoming a brokered convention. Even Clinton's hopes of making the necessary delegate tally are dwindling as the primary surges on. Prior to counting pledged superdelegates, Clinton needs to secure roughly 57 percent of all remaining unpledged delegates (If you count pledged superdelegates her task doesn't seem as dauntless with her needing to only secure roughly 32 percent of all remaining unpledged delegates.).

As the numbers show, both candidates still have a fight ahead of them to secure their party's nomination. The two only have 20 more contests to decide the winner before the primary season is over, with 37 contests already behind them. All eyes stay glued on New York to see if Clinton keeps her lead in the polls or if Sanders can overtake her before the primary on the 19th.

Return for the next installment of The Campaign Trail 2016 on April 19th after the results of the New York Republican and Democratic primaries.

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