All the talk in the media has been
about the upcoming primary in New York. Is former Senator Hillary
Clinton leading? Is Senator Bernie Sanders gaining ground?
Billionaire Donald Trump is leading the polls but are Senator Ted
Cruz or Governor John Kasich polling high enough they will capture
any delegates from New York?
Roughly a month ago the Republican
party held their Wyoming caucuses, one of the ones that Cruz managed
to take, but what has slipped by in the news with very little fanfare
are the Democratic Wyoming caucuses that occurred yesterday. Why has
the Democratic Wyoming caucuses slipped through with so little talk?
Nestled in between Wisconsin's 91 delegates and New York's 291
delegates, Wyoming's 18 delegate award seems rather paltry and
insignificant.
Sanders won the Equality State with
55.7 percent of the vote. A win for Sanders that only exists in name
only. Despite Clinton only taking 44.3 percent of the vote, both
Sanders and Clinton split the delegates 50/50 so neither candidate
gained any ground at all delegate wise in the state.
So was there any real benefit for
either candidate from the Wyoming caucuses?
For Sanders, this is his seventh
victory in a row, which will help the candidate build momentum for
his campaign, something that Sanders desperately needs right now at
this late stage in the 2016 presidential nomination campaign.
Considering that at this point, before superdelegates currently
pledged are factored in, Sanders needs to collected roughly 69
percent of all remaining unpledged delegates to just reach the total
delegates needed to secure the Democratic nomination (If you do
factor in pledged superdelegates Sanders only needs to win roughly 68
percent of all remaining unpledged delegates to reach the target
goal.).
For Clinton, she didn't lose any ground
in her lead over Sanders due to the Wyoming caucuses. Since the
delegate count is the all important decider of who will be the 2016
Democratic presidential nominee, maintaining that lead over Sanders
is vitally important for Clinton if she is going to have any hope of
winning the primary without the Democratic National Convention in
July becoming a brokered convention. Even Clinton's hopes of making
the necessary delegate tally are dwindling as the primary surges on.
Prior to counting pledged superdelegates, Clinton needs to secure
roughly 57 percent of all remaining unpledged delegates (If you count
pledged superdelegates her task doesn't seem as dauntless with her
needing to only secure roughly 32 percent of all remaining unpledged
delegates.).
As the numbers show, both candidates
still have a fight ahead of them to secure their party's nomination.
The two only have 20 more contests to decide the winner before the
primary season is over, with 37 contests already behind them. All
eyes stay glued on New York to see if Clinton keeps her lead in the
polls or if Sanders can overtake her before the primary on the 19th.
Return for the next installment of The
Campaign Trail 2016 on April 19th after the results of the
New York Republican and Democratic primaries.
No comments:
Post a Comment