Wednesday, April 27, 2016

The Campaign Trail 2016: Meet your probable Republican and Democratic nominees

Tuesday five states held primaries and essentially all but two candidates have now lost any chance of securing their parties nominations.

Former Senator Hillary Clinton won in a close competition in Connecticut receiving 51.8 percent of the vote with Senator Bernie Sanders collecting 46.4 percent of the vote for his second place finish. So far Clinton has collected 27 of the 55 delegates that Connecticut is giving out. Sanders has collected 25. In Delaware Clinton won with a greater victory margin gaining 58.8 percent of the vote and she won 12 of the 21 delegates that Delaware gave out. Sanders collected 39.2 percent of the vote and nine delegates.

Clinton won again in Pennsylvania receiving 55.6 percent of the vote. Pennsylvania is giving out 189 delegates and so far Clinton has collected 95 for her victory. Sanders received 43.6 percent of the vote and has collected 67 delegates from Pennsylvania. Maryland brought a blow out win for Clinton with her taking 63 percent of the vote. Sanders only managed to get 33.2 percent of the vote. Maryland is giving out 95 delegates and so far has awarded Clinton with 59 and Sanders with 32 of them.

Rhode Island brought Sanders his only win for the night with 55 percent of the vote. Rhode Island was giving out 24 delegates and Sanders received 13 for his efforts. Clinton received 43.3 percent of the vote and received 11 delegates.

Last night effectively ended Sanders' campaign. Not counting pledged unbound superdelegates Sanders needs to collect 85 percent of all unawarded delegates to achieve the necessary 2383 delegates to secure the Democratic nomination. With his current pledged superdelegates he needs to secure 82 percent of the unawarded delegates.

Clinton needs to collect 58.9 percent of all unawarded delegates, not counting superdelegates, to achieve the total required. However, with the pledged unbound superdelegates Clinton currently has, she only needs to collect 18.2 percent of all unawarded delegates to gain the Democratic nomination. She should be able to collect that and more meaning that the Democratic convention shouldn't ever become a brokered convention.

In a surprise move Sunday Jeff Roe, Cruz for President campaign manager, issued a release stating, “Having Donald Trump at the top of the ticket in November would be a sure disaster for Republicans. Not only would Trump get blown out by Clinton or Sanders, but having him as our nominee would set the party back a generation. To ensure that we nominate a Republican who can unify the Republican Party and win in November, our campaign will focus its time and resources in Indiana and in turn clear the path for Gov. Kasich to compete in Oregon and New Mexico, and we would hope that allies of both campaigns would follow our lead. In other states holding their elections for the remainder of the primary season, our campaign will continue to compete vigorously to win.”

Governor John Kasich's campaign issued a similar statement.

Monday billionaire Donald Trump's campaign responded with, “It is sad that two grown politicians have to collude against one person who has only been a politician for ten months in order to try and stop that person from getting the Republican nomination.”

Not that any of this mattered after Tuesday night's primaries.

Trump took wins in all five states Tuesday night. In Connecticut Trump had a resounding victory gaining 57.9 percent of the vote. Connecticut is a proportional state for awarding delegates but because of Trump's blow out victory he walked away with all 28 delegates up for grabs. Kasich received second place with 28.4 percent of the vote and Senator Ted Cruz came in third with 11.7 percent of the vote.

In Delaware Trump repeated with another resounding victory with 60.8 percent of the vote. Delaware was a winner take all state, so Trump walked away with all 16 delegates. Kasich came in second with 20.4 percent of the vote and Cruz came in third with 15.9 percent of the vote.

Maryland, another winner take all state, was another blow out victory for Trump with him gaining 54.4 percent of the vote. Trump obviously walked away with all 38 delegates that Maryland was giving out. Kasich came in second with 23 percent of the vote and Cruz came in third with 18.9 percent of the vote.

Pennsylvania was a repeat of all prior states and Trump walked away with all 17 of the winner take all delegates that Pennsylvania is giving out and 56.7 percent of the vote with his victory. Cruz received his only second place finish of the night in Pennsylvania with 21.6 percent of the vote and Kasich came in third with 19.4 percent of the vote.

Rhode Island was no different than the first three states. Trump had a blow out victory with 63.8 percent of the vote. Rhode Island had 19 delegates to award and is a proportional state. So far Trump has collected ten of the delegates for his victory. Kasich came in second with 24.4 percent of the vote. Kasich didn't go home empty handed for the night receiving five delegates so far from Rhode Island. Cruz came in third with 10.4 percent of the vote. He also didn't go home empty handed collecting three delegates so far from Rhode Island.

Last night was a major milestone for Trump. He is now the only Republican candidate that can win the Republican nomination outside of a brokered convention. To achieve the 1237 delegates required for nomination, Trump needs to secure 45.9 percent of the unawarded delegates. Cruz now needs to secure 109.6 percent of the unawarded delegates to gain the nomination. Kasich, who wins the 'why are you still even trying' award, needs to secure 176 percent of the remaining delegates to get the nomination.

Upon hearing the news that he could no longer reach the required delegates to become the Republican nominee, Cruz promptly made an important announcement at 4 pm EST on Wednesday. The announcement he made probably caused a lot of jaws to drop.

“After a great deal of consideration and prayer, I have come to the conclusion that if I am nominated to be president of the United States that I will run on a ticket with my vice presidential nominee Carly Fiorina,” Cruz said at a rally in Indianapolis, Indiana.

Candidates usually announce their vice presidential pick after they are sure to win their party's nomination, not after receiving the news that they no longer can obtain enough delegates to win the nomination. But then again, nothing about this campaign season has been normal so far.

It is safe to assume that Trump and Clinton are vetting potential vice presidential picks and that announcements will come from both in the not too distant future.

The Libertarian party, who's convention is looming closer and closer, are hopefully looking carefully at the vice presidential candidates. The Libertarian party selects their vice presidential candidate by vote at the National Convention. Given that the Libertarians have a chance to win the 2016 presidential election, a vice president who has charisma and can debate whomever Trump and Clinton pick is a must since the Libertarians will have to pull every voter possible to win the presidency.

Return for the next installment of The Campaign Trail 2016 after the results from the Indiana primary on May 3rd.

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